The announcement of the route of the Vuelta a España 2025 has been on everyone’s lips in recent days. Since the 21 stages were presented, opinions about it have multiplied, especially with a certain favoritism towards Tadej Pogacar.
In fact, the figure of Javier Guillén, director of La Vuelta, has been criticized more than praised. The main reason for these criticisms revolves around the idea that it will be a “monotonous” race, clearly oriented towards the climbers and the general classification.
The almost certain presence of Tadej Pogacar is what generates this irritation on the part of the fans, who see that with so many single-leg stages there will be almost no chance for breakaways, and that if the star of UAE Team Emirates XRG (as it will be called from 2025) arrives with good legs, the inequality will be so great that the Slovenian will sweep the race.
Looking at the route of La Vuelta, it’s obvious that breakaways are unlikely to be successful. Teams with an interest in controlling them, such as UAE, will have it very easy. Obviously Pogacar will most likely not win all the mountain stages. But, potentially, the option is there, and that is what is being pointed out.
In addition, it is also criticized that the large number of stages with a single port at the end will only create excitement in the finals, causing the first two thirds of the days to be soporific.
Pogacar’s 12 possible victories at the Vuelta a España
Looking at the profiles of each stage, these are all the victories that Tadej Pogacar can achieve in the Vuelta a España 2025:
Stage 2: Single stage day with a high finish in Limone (8 kilometers at 5%), perfect for Pogacar to quickly get the red jersey.
Stage 3: the theory is that it should be a finish for the sprinters, although it may be too steep uphill for the peloton to make it all the way to the top. Being the start of the race, Pogacar may be in the mood to make a late attack and extend his overall lead.
Stage 6: day with 3 mountain passes and a summit finish in Pal. Probably one of the few fun stages from start to finish. Ideal day for Pogacar to take his third win and increase the gap in the general classification.
Stage 7: the Andorra area is perhaps the best of the Vuelta a España 2025. This day will be another tough one from start to finish. There will be 4 passes and a high finish in Cerler. This is where Pogacar will probably have to work hardest for the win.
Stage 9: Second single day of La Vuelta. Pogacar can come out of the first week with 4 stage wins. Here he will face a very easy day to control the breakaway, with a high finish in the ski resort of Valdezcaray.
Stage 10: this day, the first of the second week, can also be considered practically a one-day stage. With a relatively easy high finish at El Ferial Larra Belagua, here Pogacar could take his 5th victory, while the breakaway will have a very difficult time.
Stage 12: the first stage without a high finish that Pogacar can win. It will be a short day of 143 kilometers, with the finish line located 23 km after the top of the Collada de Brenes, the first pass that will decide the day’s winner. The Slovenian is an arrow downhill, while Enric Mas is not particularly good at it.
Stage 13: the most anticipated of all. Perhaps the queen stage. Before the Angliru there will be a completely flat first part of the stage and a hellish finish with 2 first-class passes (Mozqueta and Cordal), as an appetizer to the Asturian colossus. There could be opportunities for the breakaway but I think this stage is especially marked in Pogacar’s calendar[T1] .
Stage 14: it’s true that it’s not a single stage, but it’s too short, yet another criticism of the route. 135 km that won’t give the breakaway enough time to get away from the brutal UAE. If it were longer, there would be a better chance and Pogacar’s team would consider resting. High finish in Farrapona after 2 passes of 3rd and 1st category.
Stage 16: it could be the day when the breakaway makes it harder for Tadej. However, we are in the same situation. There are 170 km of stage. If it were a little longer, it would be a different story. Pogacar has at his disposal to start the third week by winning again.
Stage 17: fourth single stage of the Vuelta a España 2025, just in case there were few. Pogacar can take his 9th victory in the race on the Alto de El Morredero in Ponferrada. He will probably already have the general classification sealed here, if he hasn’t done it before.
Stage 20: if the Angliru can be his main goal, Pogacar will also want to win on a Bola del Mundo that is not expected to make much of a difference between the men in the general classification.
In total, Tadej Pogacar has up to 12 stage victories at his disposal! It is a course where the mountains have been abused in an exaggerated way. The sprinters will only be “assured” of 6 days to win. A derisory amount that may cause that many will not even consider going to La Vuelta.
Freddy Maertens’ record of 13 wins in the 1977 Vuelta a España could be in danger depending on how cannibalistic the Slovenian feels.