As in any play, La Vuelta a España is approaching the denouement of a plot that has offered us its plot twists and turns and has been growing in intensity. What remains in the last week a priori we can imagine, a Primoz Roglic who has shown himself as the strongest of the race, but has also shown signs of not being super. Who knows if in the end we won’t have an unexpected finish. This is what awaits us in the remaining 6 stages.
With a tremendously tight general classification, with barely 3 minutes difference between the first and the fifth, the scenarios ahead of the last week of La Vuelta a España 2024 are varied.
To begin with, mention what the cyclists will have to overcome between now and next Sunday: six stages where they will only find a more friendly, but not easy, terrain on the Wednesday day that ends in Santander.
To start with, tomorrow, on the return from the rest day, an indigestible menu with Lagos de Covadonga, preceded by the ascent of the Collada Llomena. A finish identical to the one that served Primoz Roglic to practically put his victory in La Vuelta in 2021 on track.
On Thursday another mid-mountain stage that could be very interesting due to the location of the hard pass of Herrera, 40 kilometers from the finish, although it is likely to be another day with a breakaway protagonist. More than anything, because after this day two more intense stages await. The first, through the Rioja region, a monopuerto-type route with a finish in Moncalvillo that will serve as an appetizer to the real queen stage of La Vuelta 2024.
A terrifying route through Cantabria with no less than 7 climbs, each one harder and the devastating finish in the hard ramps of Picón Blanco. And, in case there is anything left to decide, a very fast time trial in the streets of Madrid very suitable for the specialists in the individual fight to be able to put a lot of seconds on their rivals.
Anything is possible
Obviously, logic dictates that it will be Primoz Roglic, who stage by stage is chipping away at the gap to Ben O’Connor and is now only 43 seconds off the lead. If everything went according to plan, it would be enough for Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe to control the race and let Primoz Roglic continue to gain seconds in the three remaining mountaintop finishes, knowing that in the Madrid time trial he has, a priori, an advantage over his rivals to have there a cushion with which to impose himself without any worries, just focusing on not failing.
However, yesterday’s stage finishing in Cuitu Negro left us with doubts about the legs with which Primoz Roglic arrives to the last week of La Vuelta 2024. Let’s remember that, as happened to Jonas Vingegaard in the Tour, he has just recovered from a serious crash in the French race and his participation in La Vuelta was in doubt until a few days before the start. It is not excluded that he could have a long race and, with the classification so close, failing one day would be definitive for his options.
In the event of Primoz Roglic’s failure, Enric Mas seems to be in the best position to take the red jersey. For the time being, he has been the only one capable of following Primoz Roglic’s wheel, although this has meant, like the other day in Ancares, that he has ended up giving up. He doesn’t guarantee much solidity either because, despite his good form, he’s taking a long time at the top finishes and doesn’t show any signs of having an attack in his legs with which he can make a difference. Especially considering his always poor performance in the time trial, which is a tough handicap for the final day in Madrid.
The Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz is also offering very good sensations, who is facing a very similar scenario to that of Enric Mas, although with one less point in the mountains to be able to be in front. However, in the case of Carapaz we are facing a tremendously brave rider who will surely try to die killing and it is not excluded that he can give us an offensive like the one that brought him to the position he occupies in the general classification in the stage of Sierra Nevada.
Mikel Landa, although the Landistas have blind faith that he has a stellar performance up his sleeve, the truth is that, as he showed yesterday with his attack in Pajares, he’s a bit of a pushover. He is well positioned, he is ambitious but his legs give him what they give him. That and his poor time trial ability make it very difficult for him to progress beyond the fifth place he now occupies.
We leave for the end the leader of La Vuelta 2024, Ben O’Connor. The Australian, who many did not expect to be in the lead beyond Sierra Nevada, is holding his own with a very tight team around him. In the final climbs he knows that he can’t be with the leaders and he doesn’t try to go out to Roglic’s attacks but has the cold blood to let him do it, set his own pace and, based on suffering, try to stretch his already meager income as if it were a piece of chewing gum.
Obviously, the seconds are running out and all his options depend on Roglic’s failure which, as we said above, cannot be ruled out. In that case, despite the fact that the rest of the favorites have also been taking time off him, the gap is still wide with them and there is no longer such a big difference in the mountains that he should not try to hold on to hope. In addition, in the time trial, the situation would be more or less equal if in the end it would be a matter of a few seconds with them.
In fact, we could be facing a scenario in which Roglic sinks in one of the remaining mountain stages and everything is decided between cyclists who are not specialists in time trials, in the last stage and precisely on the goat in just a handful of seconds.